Week ending May 25 - IS this it?

I've been watching the main Aussie index the XJO 200 slip and slide between two rallying points over the last month...as it bounced between 6390 and 6270....with a possible weak double top formation...... Finally we had a marginal break below this channel.

It's been gving me the 'screaming Ab-Dabs' as my father used to say. Now there's nothing firm Yet and it will probably rally into the zone again before a plummet[ IF there will be one!]. How's all this affect what I am doing?... well mostly I'd like a stock to be going in one direction or the other- even though this is a medium term trading method- it's still nice to have some sort of follow through- rather than the 'spasmodic' rises and falls we've had over the last month - Of course this could continue.

This week's efforts were mostly aborted on Thursday- as the index dropped 70 points and below the support line at 6270. First cab to be effected by this was Boral BLD.ax which had shown a 63% return on equity at one point. This trade was slightly different to the standard as it had come back through a double top and I was anticipating a position of support above this- not to be - I exited for just over break even.

DXL.ax [Dybonobel] This was a similar 'breakout' and it was marginally profitable- after the index plunged I wasn't interested in gambling on anything so took a 3 cent loss or 31% loss on investment...

Jubilee mines - JBM.ax I opened on Tuesday at 18.33 it plunged in the first day of the XJO move down and then recovered- surprising as Nickel was down 4% on the London Metals Exchange [Jubilee's main business is NICKEL!], so I sat with it . Checking the LME stats again the next morning nickel down a further 4%- I got out on the open as the XJO plunged once more - JBM down 60+ cents this time and stayed there = a minor 19% loss on investment.

I entered Tower [insurances] TWR.ax based on a breakout of the long term trend line... there was a very strong bar on good volume and I entered the trade around $2.18.... then DOWN IT GOES- classic trade! with the XJO route I got out on Thursday on the close only to watch it do a strong comeback next day- maybe it IS braking out- But with the flopsy undecided overall 'it might be time for a crash' feeling I've been getting I am happy to be out. Exit was $2.05 for 118% loss on investement [ that's only .25% of my total account however- is it worth crying over?]....

Finally as I write this Monday morning I have just exited my remaining position in Perilya mines PEM.ax. This was looking good - in a decent up trend, RSI-xover, Good volume on entry day- strong bar- then it got caught up in the uncertainty and plunged- entry was $4.48 and after a recovery to $4.40 I was out as the XJO dipped to 6220 for a loss of 87% on investment.

So, I'm pretty much on the sidelines while the market makes up its mind- I will be looking for 'shorting' opportunities- you CAN do this trading CFD's...

So, Is this IT? the start of a decent run down- Any Gannists' will be looking to the 20th oif June as a major marktet turning point- as will I.... is this it?

Week ending May 18th

Yep, sorry a bit late on the upload this week.... still attending Internet marketing University and getting my tassels sorted out.....

I don't think the pictures are working so I am giving a link to the Yahoo charts for reference.

It's almost like last week is so far away I can hardly think of what has happened.... first up the two 'long term' trades [1% risk] where stopped out for profit- ZFX at 200% at $17.35- ENTRY was $15.72

ZFX.ax Chart


OXR was a 100% Return [unfortunately it gapped down from a stunning 287% Return on investment at one point- [still 100% IS 100%]. Entry $3.07 EXIT $3.26

OXR.ax



My Oil positions proved partly profitable - Beach petroleum just went sideways after entry at $1.375 so I exited for break even

BPT.ax


and Oil search after failing to perform on a rise in the Crude Oil price was terminated for a profit of 78% R.O.I- ENTRY was $3.80 EXIT $3.92. The next day it DID decide to do something going to a high of around $4.05- would have been a potential 100% return IF I had taken it.

OSH.ax


I think I was nervous- along with the Aussie Market and Dow and S&P being at all time highs- Is there a crash coming- I recall a similar feeling being in Israel- Is there a bomb on this bus?

Sunland proved to be a top short term performer ENTRY $3.38 EXIT $3.57 . I am glad I moved the stop to 100% return after it had a a huge peak ,

SDG.ax


After a high of $3.67 it dropped-stone-like- for a day or so before stabilising - a perfectly executed trade under my RSI-X system....... speaking of which I have just registered the domain and will start whipping up a page or two about the methods while I work on finishing the book....

Sonic Health care proved to be a thorn in my side- after holding for a week or so and watching it bob up and down 'teasing' the maximum stop loss I put an order to exit at my entry price at $14.64- then it shot away on another [unrecognised] entry signal to $15.15!

BLD.ax


- I also took positions in Dyno Nobel [DXL.ax] and Tower life [TWR.ax]

Hopefully I'll be a bit more alert next week and will get this up earlier.

For more trading stuff and Wealth creation tools check out my website mymillionairebuddy.com/sharemarket

Also check out my many information websites at original reviews.com

Week ending 11 May 2007

Well, I am still holding Zinifex, [ZFX.ax] almost like a familiar old friend now- It had another nice move up - But as this is a Zinc miner and subject to huge price swings, it can just as easily come down. I have moved the stop loss to 200% Return on Investment [R.O.I.] at around $17.35 - in case you're wondering I am using Contracts for Difference so I have a deposit of say $500 and my current profit is $1000 - hence that's 200% R.O.I.

I am thinking of moving the stop loss in line with the weighted moving average from here on in.

OXR- [OXR.ax] Once again some nice movement in this one - but then Gold dropped $20 an ounce on Thursday as well as Copper and guess what Oxiana has plenty of exposure too? Yep- Gold and Copper- and so it gapped down . Stop loss is now following the Weighted moving average....which is just over 100% R.O.I Max profit at the high of 3.52 was an R.O.I. of 289%! Placing the stop at 200% would have done no good as it gapped through this.

While we're on Gold- I thought that Sino GOLD [SGX.ax] was doing 'the right thing' on Wednesday, so I bought on the close- nice Strong Bar Plenty of volume RSI-CROSSOVER, coming out of a consolidation area- but the next day it bombed and the day after, gold was down $20 an ounce- it gapped below my stop loss for a197% Loss on invesment- that's the way the ball bounces sometimes!

I also had positions in IFL.ax and TSE.ax this week , but they failed to do anything so I got out for break even.

Currently I have a hankering for oil and this week bought into Oil search [OSH.ax] and Beach Petroleum[BPT.ax]

Oil Search seemed to have a long term RSI-X-over occuring and I got on board the huge breakout bar on Wednesday- Thursday was nice going into 38% R.O.I. - Thurday's Fuel inventories news in the U.S. [We have got plenty!] sent Crude prices down and so we backed off a bit on Friday, but still in reasonable profit- stop still on the swing low.

Beach Petroleum- this one's currently sitting on break even awaiting something.....some strong days this week with above average volume- Friday's retreat was on low volume, so I am not too worried.

Finally, I don't ususally go near property investment stocks or developers but Sunland Group [SDG.ax] Yelled at me to be bought--so I did. It was exhibiting all my favorite characteristics-

• Higher Low,
  



• Strong bar through the Moving average,




• Above average volume,




• RSI-Crossover
  

So I Entered the trade near the Close on Thursday and it continued its journey upwards....currently a 37% R.O.I.

Anything else?

Oh yes.... SHL Sonic Health Care.... I was inclined to this due to a lot of merger activity in the Health Care sector... it did do a very strong bar on a longer term higher low- but failed to carry- it has been range bound within the large bar of Thursday of the previous week. Has poked its heads into profit a few times currently Minus 31% R.O.I.

Phew- Oh and I also offered 12 Billion for Qantas,but they weren't interested in my offer!

For more trading stuff and Wealth creation tools check out my website mymillionairebuddy.com/sharemarket

Week's wash up 04-05-07

Here's the progress report for this week..... some decent profits in Zinifex and OXR+ that trade I missed!


1. ARQ- After the decent gap up, this stock went sideways- with a RETURN ON INVESTMENT of 160% after broking I chose to exit.....the other option here would be to use the weighted moving average as a stop loss/exit- I like to 'take the money'. I entered this trade based on a penant formation, a strong bar out of the weighted moving average, a higher low, a RSI crossover and above average volume.

2. MRE- the one that got away! I was on a train when this presented itself- if I had done my normal 'market close scan' I probably would have been on board- a gap up of 60cents- to achieve 100% ROI-immediately! Reasons for entry:

Strong bar over weighted moving average, RSI-X, strong volume, support area/double bottoms.....and off it went.

Back to reality!

AXA- this one COULD have done something- max profit of sixteen cents-but alas not to last - Stop loss was moved to entry after the stock started moving. reason for trade:

Strong bar short through Weighted moving average, RSI-X.

4. ZFX- still shooting away-suspecting it has to end soon ,currently showing a 168% ROI- stop loss is at 100% ROI at 16.50.

5. OXR- a couple of nice moves after a week or so of sideways action- bring it on!

Paul J Penton is CEO of http://mymillionairebuddy.com - free wealth creation resources.

Current Trades-

Hi there,

this blog will keep me accountable to the new trading method I have adopted - the RSI-X. Based on a subtle interpretation of the standard indicator I will be looking here primarily at Australian stocks, but may include a few American ones from time to time.

I like to see 4 elements present before I am 'convinced' a trade is valid

1. A crossover on the 'x' period RSI indicator [the 'x' factor is revealed in my e-Book]

2. Significant movement through the 'x' period Weighted Moving Average

3. A higher Low or double bottom formation for long [buy]trades or a Lower High or
Double Top formation for short [selling] trades

4. Above average volume

I am trading CFD's on the Australian Securities Exchange at present and will look to trade the SPI 200 and S&P 500 at some point in the immediate future.

On all trades I currently use a maximum of 2% risk- this is achieved by calculating maximum risk on a trade and then dividing this into my 'risk capital'..... so for example an account of $20,000 lets me risk $400 [$20,000/2%]. let's assume I have 40 cents of risk on a $10 stock then I can buy...........

value $10.00

Stop/Loss $9.60
RISK $(0.40)
account $20000
2% of AC = $400.00
#0f shares = (1,000.00)

My average Return On Investment [R.O.I] for the last month of trading is at least 80%.... note this does not mean I have Increased the trading account by 80% in the last month!....... just the money at risk.

Current monthly return on the entire account is 10%.

Let's look at some of the current trades in play:

ZINIFEX- yahoo code zfx.ax

This chart is used courtesy of INCREDIBLECHARTS.COM
Initially I was alerted as the stock moved through the weighted moving average after making a Double Bottom formation. I was not 'convinced' by the volume and let it go. After the stock had made a new 'significant' HIGHER LOW and then broke the Weighted Moving Average I entered the trade - slightly early as it retraced immediately, but then the stock made a significant move- which SHOULD have been the entry. Still in this trade with stop loss placed at 100% R.O.I. around $16.50.

Exit strategy: I will run a trendline up the RSI and any break of this means an exit below the close of the 'signal day' . If the trade progresses to 200% R.O.I. I will move stop to 150% - alternately- as this is a medium term trade I will use the Weighted Moving Average as 'HARD STOP'.

ARQ- yahoo code arq.ax

This chart is used courtesy of INCREDIBLECHARTS.COM

Occasionally a trade will 'jump out' at you..... and this one certainly did- and then it JUMPED up a huge gap! So were my four criteria satisfied.....

RSI-Xover- YES

Weighted Moving average crossover & Strong bar- Yes

Lower High and support area-YES

Volume above average- Yes

To give this some additional 'Ooomph' there was a nice 'penant' formation.

After entering around 1.32 & 1/2 on a strong bar and wma cross with just over average volume the stock advanced marginally.... and was then sent the skywardon an anouncement that the company [oil exploration & production] had bought into a mob called Wandoo- who already had deposits in place.

My 100% R.O.I. target was hit at 1.40 and after an advance to 1.46 I placed my stop loss at the 100% R.O.I. point. It has held thus far with a brief glance on this day of writing, before closing Up 4 cents at 1.46.

I currently also hold IFL.ax, OXR.ax & am short on AXA.ax.

Paul J Penton is CEO of http://mymillionairebuddy.com : Free Wealth Creation Resources.