oops-I did it again!

Finally a decent retracement on the XJO......








Now of course apologies to any of you caught up in the 'route' in the market, as a result of credit worries in the U.S. plus some other factors....






I was still trialling my 5/15/1 hour trading method when at 6340 I got a clear signal. Three ducks were quacking so I shorted the XJO.



Now let me tell you, profits have been so lean the last 2 months that, as soon as I strated making money I was on it ,like a hawk, waiting for any loss of profits... the proper sign to exit is a full bar above the wma, but was I patient enough... Nooooooooooooo. The index traded up touching the fast ma. Really not so serious

Symbion just was doing nothing- I was out 'before the Route:

Casting out the Demon of Poverty

I didn't post last week, as essentially nothing happened on the stocks front. My continued experiments with 15 minute and 1 hour chart combos on the s&p XJO 200 did draw a bit of fruit - with a handy 50 points picked up after the DOW did its 238+ points. I also spent a pleasant 4-5 days in a beach-side retreat re-learning how to write songs and enjoy playing the guitar.


Unfortunately the break was disturbed by a message that a work colleague who had been dealing with various cancers was taken ill and passed away suddenly... farewell Kate.....


A quick recap on SGB - I was knocked out at break even after a couple of promising days--

MR XJO hit the ceiling and bounced-but not all the way this time-- Could this be the 'last leg' all the Ellioticians are waiting for.....

SO, I was out of range of Mr Internet for about 4 and a half days and vaguely monitored my position in (cey.au) Centennial Coal through the newspaper... it wasn't doing much.... then yesterday it had did a VERY tatsy bar... and looked like it would hand in its chips after an early break this morning but finished strongly on the close.

As to the XJO this week- I am now using a sort-of 'triple screen' method -a derivation of the methods proposed by Dr Alexander Elder in his well thumbed dissertation 'Trading for a Living'. After 4 months of this I think that I can at best count it as a Hobby - I seem to lack the 'killer' instinct, the hunger for money- It's more about finding a way to make sense of all that data and then managing myself [reactions-emotions-rationalisations] as I see the signals come through - I WILL be patient- I WILL wait for the end of the bar before taking the trade--but, but- it's "getting away!"- sucker!

I put on a trade yesterday when the 3 screens were in accord- 'the tide'-1hour chart-said "GO LONG". 'The wave'-15 minute and 'the ripple'- the 5 minute chart were in accord. It was a nice bar out over the fast Weighted MA and the trade held up overnight- I thought it would open steady this morning, and was shocked as it opened at 6427 [Entry was 6385]... my inclination was to sell immediately- it was a huge gap- but- I wanted to follow the plan and watched it ride down to around 6410- my stop was around 6399- the slow moving average- there was a spike and I was out of the trade.

-Profit is a good thing. I am grateful-

There were a few moments today where the 'little voice' was chattering about how that bar just got over the moving average and it's backed up by that other bar -but chart 2 says uh-huh no GO- DRAT!!!- and sure enough it plunged about a minute later ALMOST suckered that time- and then about 20 minutes before C.O.B. the full suite of GREENS came up and though hesitant, I took it-8 points at risk- Very close and tight, but there was nice rally at the end of the day and I picked up a further 11 points, closing right on the futures close at 1629 and 30 seconds! The rally 'may' continue..

Oh, as too the title of this weeks blog- One of the things I struggle with is getting out of my 'I'm a little poor boy' psychology /trap/game. Rationally I 'know' it's the cause of my self sabotaging behaviour in relation to money, but that has not changed the behaviours I indulge in.

I was meditating on these things this morning and wondered if I was 'possessed' by some type of demon- Of course I don't believe in that sort of thing- having studied to be a psychic at one point- i know the ins and outs of the 'spirit world'. Instead of a being I envisaged my 'demon' of poverty as an energy force- yeah OK it could look a bit like Casper the friendly ghost...But I did a cleansing meditation and commanded the demon[energy force?] to 'be removed'. I will see if my thinking changes at all over the next few months- maybe that's my 'big trading secret I can share with the world!

Trade well and prosper.

PJP

Another bounce -Barnes Wallace Rides again

(XJO.ax) Daily

Still mostly disinterested and unimpressed with the slow crawling sideways snake...Once again a journey to the 6180 region for the XJO... I did take a small wager on the way down that was quickly extinguished in the frenzied up and down-ness of it all.

Thursday I took a trade on the fifteen minute chart- backed up by the 5 minute 'Ripple' and the 1 hour 'Tide' as Dr Alexander Elder calls it.... handy overnight profit 5328-6375 but it collapsed in the morning- I exited on the 15 minute signal under the moving average.....chart courtesy of GFT Forex- who by the way have VERY GOOD CHARTS!

I wasn't scanning about much this week, but my man with the Gann stuff suggested a few trades on Thursday- I thought st.George bank (SGB.ax) was looking OK - trendline break out, double bottom- break out over the WMA. Closing the week slightly higher. Entry 35.70- Friday close 36.15. Good-O.

A scan this morning showed that Centenial coal (CEY.ax) was looking OK. I waited for the first half hour of trading to pass before getting into the trade- just as well If I had bought on the open I'd be another 6 cents worse off... closing down .04 on my entry at 3.22

So, that's it for the week...keep plodding through refining the 'perfect formula' and getting the 'Holy Grail' trading method under control.... L.O.L.!

Thinking of starting my own trading seminars to make money on the side....from suckers like me!

Oh, that's right I did my tax- I spent in the order of $8000 AUD on courses, softwares, fees etc in the last financial year. I did actually come out cash positive on the stock trading front- pity about the 25K of foregin exchange losses...ah...... that Holy Grail is a wonderful thing.

and down we go....

So, if I was a betting man..... as I've said before. Well I did take a bit of a punt , as I am sick to death of silly stocks not going anywhere.. and I 'punted' on the XJO index. Having reached 6400 and turning around as it has now done a couple of times...ho hum....I went Short around 6357, about 15 mins before close of business - I had a signal on a 15 minute chart.... AS SOON AS I SOLD it went up.. moron, fool , idiot... isn't it interesting what we tell ourselves when a trade doesn't 'immediately' work out! Any way, the close of business it was 6387 I think [on the continuous chart-trading overnight-], my stop was 6407. Off to bed to discover New York had dropped 100+ points -GOOD- for me at least.

The futures charts were showing an open in the 6317 region, and they did. And then dropping even lower to around 6302. Great , profits, money ....yeah. Then there was an afternoon clawback , and a close with 20 points of profit. One stock market teacher had imprinted a phrase on my brain- "don't turn a profit into a loss'. So I moved stop to entry + a couple of bucks.

Well over night Aussie time New York went , UP, we went UP, I was stopped out as it sailed back to 6380, then turned around.... this time I didn't have the heart to take it- I also had no signal...and then OF course it plunged down to the bottom of then channel at 6170 ish...depends which chart you're working off. If I had not heeded the teachers advice I MIGHT have picked up 100 or so points....

No lessons to be learned from all this - though I am becoming convinced that this is not the 'lifestyle choice' that is suitable for me.

The included chart is just the daily action so there's no detail on the intraday stuff...

Oh, and I was so disgusted with normal stocks I didn't even bother looking....

OOPs..was that 6400 AGAIN!

IF, I was a betting man then I WOULD have bet that the XJO would hit 6400 AGAIN, and it did...Now, I keep asking...IS THIS IT! JUNE 20 has passed equalling the old high- the market SIDEWAYS for nearly 2 months...hmmmmmmmm...still we live to be surprised and amazed... I was trialling a few trades off of fifteen minute charts on the index coming out about 30 points down for the week....even intra-day it is choppy and SIDEWAYS....is anybody else biting their arm off out there?

Fosters- Had enough of it- Over it - 3 weeks of NOTHING...The XJO did a plunge this morning and I was vaguely panic'd and pee'd off and dumped EVERYTHING, just in case it was the begining of the end.....

I bought ANZ which performed admirably for a few days, and then this morning hit a hurdle- made a TINY loss.... as it sank with the rest of my stocks.

I like the look of Iluka on Wendesday bought on the close-one day up and decent profit- it was dumped this morning...for a profit


And then there was AGK- remember how I said I was losing faith in the 'strong bar through the WMA', well I went this week for the 'jumping bean' bar- yep the whole bar HAS to be over the WMA as was AGK- well that didn't work did it! DUMPED! for a reasonable loss.



I thought ENE was looking good too... NUP. DUMPED!


Finally QBE another decent profit on the table and then this crazy DOJI bar....DUMPED! Still did take a profit out of that...

So, there you have it my 3 month campaign while on leave has resulted in a bank balance advance of about $100- after download fees etc- that's about minus $300... and you want to be a trader-----Forget it.... The only way to make money in trading is to sell trading systems to Other suckers...I should know ...I've bought them all!

I'm sure I'll be a litttle more rational next week..but I'm seriously considering putting the whole game away and not playing-unless....This is it!

June 15 More of the same

Overall, a look at XJO first:

Still this sideways cr%p!.... and, are we on the edge of another run to 6400 ?
- or IS THIS IT!-
With the 'Gann' June 20 'seasonal date ' approaching, change is surely in the air- if only it were love!......I am thinking 'DOWN', but the tea leaves will tell.

Tried a few experimental 'minimal' [$1 a point] trades on the index this week for a small overall loss on 15 minute charts...... still experimenting with something aside from 'trend trading'.

FGL- Still on the go 2 weeks now with nothing happening...but hey, nothing's been happening...so I might pull the pin on it soon.... it's just costing me CFD interest.....

Last weeks 'buy on the close' has performed miserably as oil hit new highs this week....yep short on the lovely big black bar- right on the bottom of it. I am starting to lose faith in the 'strong bar' and will be system testing another idea I formulated this week, which might produce a better result with the same information- hence it is NOT madness!

Didn't perceive many other opportunities this week- but my man Tolly suggested QBE could be going somewhere- it met some of my criteria- except volume - so I bought on the close today.

Paul Penton is CEO of www.mymillionairebuddy.com- Free classic e-books on Wealth Creation.

The week as it was to June 8

All charts are Courtesy of incrediblecharts.com - free charting software





First this week let's have a look at the XJO [Aussie equivalent of the Dow/S&P/FTSE].

As I was suggesting the other week..in 'is this it' the XJO has been range trading between 6390 and 6230. Well, as you can see it held true to form, briefly poking its head above 6400 for a new 'record' high before heading for the security of the 6230 zone-with a brief dalliance to 6190 before getting back in line...Now here's the thing MR Dow dropped 190+ points on Thursday and Friday was back 160 ish- so the Aussie market 'should' rally on Monday. On my radar screen I see a couple of possibilities- There is a long term RSI-Xover on the short side, probably the first Major signal I have seen to say this might be 'IT'- as there have been a few of these I will give it less weight. You can see the 6230 area was formerly a 'resistance' area and common trading wisdom states that 'support becomes resistance' and vica-versa. So I want to see a couple of decent closes under the 'resistance to be convinced the plunge is 'on'. Now given all that, my man with the 'timing' tricks Tolly Sakellariou, was making a call for a decent fall off the S&P 500 high- and it happened- I was looking at a 15 minute chart when his call went out and took a short position on the XJO at 6336- this worked out nicely the next day as that Dow was down- I placed an exit stop above the fast moving average and was stopped outat 6306 - pity as there was another 100 points in it! Still it worked .

To other matters:

I missed an entry on PBL the other day see the previous post- and in general couldn't find much to arouse my trading interest apart from ROC oil on Friday:

This one met all my criteria:- Lower high/Volume/Strong bar & crossing throught eh WMA, and I took a short position near the close at 3.24- pity I didn't wait 'til right on the bell as it came back 6 cents!

FGL- my only other trade in progress from last week-It went briefly into profit and managed to make its way through the plunges currently down 4 cents- I see no reason to exit- apart from that 'little line of resistance! over 6.60




for more share trading info and wealth creation resources visit www.mymillionairebuddy.com

One that got away

PBL.ax

Obviously I was asleep on Monday or disinterested when this fantastic trade came up... perhaps I didn't take it because I thought the initial reactive bar through the Weighted Moving Average was to big?- Fabulous if you're on it...

Lower high-YEP/Crossing through WMA-YEP/Decent Volume-YEP/RSI-X-YEP!

feedtest

this is to test the xml feed

Week ending June 1st

Short and sweet this week- I exited Perilya on Monday as per previous blog...Tuesday a market rise -Wednesday a Plummet- Thursday a scyscraper of a day in the first hour, back near the all time high... so I'm still cautious about buying much as the channel roller-coaster keeps on swinging....however-I did think Fosters has a chance-

FGL.ax Fosters Brewing

A long term Double bottom support around 6.20 from November last year and March this year, a break out from a long term trend line- Big day up- plenty of volume - Someone is believing in this stock!

Week ending May 25 - IS this it?

I've been watching the main Aussie index the XJO 200 slip and slide between two rallying points over the last month...as it bounced between 6390 and 6270....with a possible weak double top formation...... Finally we had a marginal break below this channel.

It's been gving me the 'screaming Ab-Dabs' as my father used to say. Now there's nothing firm Yet and it will probably rally into the zone again before a plummet[ IF there will be one!]. How's all this affect what I am doing?... well mostly I'd like a stock to be going in one direction or the other- even though this is a medium term trading method- it's still nice to have some sort of follow through- rather than the 'spasmodic' rises and falls we've had over the last month - Of course this could continue.

This week's efforts were mostly aborted on Thursday- as the index dropped 70 points and below the support line at 6270. First cab to be effected by this was Boral BLD.ax which had shown a 63% return on equity at one point. This trade was slightly different to the standard as it had come back through a double top and I was anticipating a position of support above this- not to be - I exited for just over break even.

DXL.ax [Dybonobel] This was a similar 'breakout' and it was marginally profitable- after the index plunged I wasn't interested in gambling on anything so took a 3 cent loss or 31% loss on investment...

Jubilee mines - JBM.ax I opened on Tuesday at 18.33 it plunged in the first day of the XJO move down and then recovered- surprising as Nickel was down 4% on the London Metals Exchange [Jubilee's main business is NICKEL!], so I sat with it . Checking the LME stats again the next morning nickel down a further 4%- I got out on the open as the XJO plunged once more - JBM down 60+ cents this time and stayed there = a minor 19% loss on investment.

I entered Tower [insurances] TWR.ax based on a breakout of the long term trend line... there was a very strong bar on good volume and I entered the trade around $2.18.... then DOWN IT GOES- classic trade! with the XJO route I got out on Thursday on the close only to watch it do a strong comeback next day- maybe it IS braking out- But with the flopsy undecided overall 'it might be time for a crash' feeling I've been getting I am happy to be out. Exit was $2.05 for 118% loss on investement [ that's only .25% of my total account however- is it worth crying over?]....

Finally as I write this Monday morning I have just exited my remaining position in Perilya mines PEM.ax. This was looking good - in a decent up trend, RSI-xover, Good volume on entry day- strong bar- then it got caught up in the uncertainty and plunged- entry was $4.48 and after a recovery to $4.40 I was out as the XJO dipped to 6220 for a loss of 87% on investment.

So, I'm pretty much on the sidelines while the market makes up its mind- I will be looking for 'shorting' opportunities- you CAN do this trading CFD's...

So, Is this IT? the start of a decent run down- Any Gannists' will be looking to the 20th oif June as a major marktet turning point- as will I.... is this it?

Week ending May 18th

Yep, sorry a bit late on the upload this week.... still attending Internet marketing University and getting my tassels sorted out.....

I don't think the pictures are working so I am giving a link to the Yahoo charts for reference.

It's almost like last week is so far away I can hardly think of what has happened.... first up the two 'long term' trades [1% risk] where stopped out for profit- ZFX at 200% at $17.35- ENTRY was $15.72

ZFX.ax Chart


OXR was a 100% Return [unfortunately it gapped down from a stunning 287% Return on investment at one point- [still 100% IS 100%]. Entry $3.07 EXIT $3.26

OXR.ax



My Oil positions proved partly profitable - Beach petroleum just went sideways after entry at $1.375 so I exited for break even

BPT.ax


and Oil search after failing to perform on a rise in the Crude Oil price was terminated for a profit of 78% R.O.I- ENTRY was $3.80 EXIT $3.92. The next day it DID decide to do something going to a high of around $4.05- would have been a potential 100% return IF I had taken it.

OSH.ax


I think I was nervous- along with the Aussie Market and Dow and S&P being at all time highs- Is there a crash coming- I recall a similar feeling being in Israel- Is there a bomb on this bus?

Sunland proved to be a top short term performer ENTRY $3.38 EXIT $3.57 . I am glad I moved the stop to 100% return after it had a a huge peak ,

SDG.ax


After a high of $3.67 it dropped-stone-like- for a day or so before stabilising - a perfectly executed trade under my RSI-X system....... speaking of which I have just registered the domain and will start whipping up a page or two about the methods while I work on finishing the book....

Sonic Health care proved to be a thorn in my side- after holding for a week or so and watching it bob up and down 'teasing' the maximum stop loss I put an order to exit at my entry price at $14.64- then it shot away on another [unrecognised] entry signal to $15.15!

BLD.ax


- I also took positions in Dyno Nobel [DXL.ax] and Tower life [TWR.ax]

Hopefully I'll be a bit more alert next week and will get this up earlier.

For more trading stuff and Wealth creation tools check out my website mymillionairebuddy.com/sharemarket

Also check out my many information websites at original reviews.com

Week ending 11 May 2007

Well, I am still holding Zinifex, [ZFX.ax] almost like a familiar old friend now- It had another nice move up - But as this is a Zinc miner and subject to huge price swings, it can just as easily come down. I have moved the stop loss to 200% Return on Investment [R.O.I.] at around $17.35 - in case you're wondering I am using Contracts for Difference so I have a deposit of say $500 and my current profit is $1000 - hence that's 200% R.O.I.

I am thinking of moving the stop loss in line with the weighted moving average from here on in.

OXR- [OXR.ax] Once again some nice movement in this one - but then Gold dropped $20 an ounce on Thursday as well as Copper and guess what Oxiana has plenty of exposure too? Yep- Gold and Copper- and so it gapped down . Stop loss is now following the Weighted moving average....which is just over 100% R.O.I Max profit at the high of 3.52 was an R.O.I. of 289%! Placing the stop at 200% would have done no good as it gapped through this.

While we're on Gold- I thought that Sino GOLD [SGX.ax] was doing 'the right thing' on Wednesday, so I bought on the close- nice Strong Bar Plenty of volume RSI-CROSSOVER, coming out of a consolidation area- but the next day it bombed and the day after, gold was down $20 an ounce- it gapped below my stop loss for a197% Loss on invesment- that's the way the ball bounces sometimes!

I also had positions in IFL.ax and TSE.ax this week , but they failed to do anything so I got out for break even.

Currently I have a hankering for oil and this week bought into Oil search [OSH.ax] and Beach Petroleum[BPT.ax]

Oil Search seemed to have a long term RSI-X-over occuring and I got on board the huge breakout bar on Wednesday- Thursday was nice going into 38% R.O.I. - Thurday's Fuel inventories news in the U.S. [We have got plenty!] sent Crude prices down and so we backed off a bit on Friday, but still in reasonable profit- stop still on the swing low.

Beach Petroleum- this one's currently sitting on break even awaiting something.....some strong days this week with above average volume- Friday's retreat was on low volume, so I am not too worried.

Finally, I don't ususally go near property investment stocks or developers but Sunland Group [SDG.ax] Yelled at me to be bought--so I did. It was exhibiting all my favorite characteristics-

• Higher Low,
  



• Strong bar through the Moving average,




• Above average volume,




• RSI-Crossover
  

So I Entered the trade near the Close on Thursday and it continued its journey upwards....currently a 37% R.O.I.

Anything else?

Oh yes.... SHL Sonic Health Care.... I was inclined to this due to a lot of merger activity in the Health Care sector... it did do a very strong bar on a longer term higher low- but failed to carry- it has been range bound within the large bar of Thursday of the previous week. Has poked its heads into profit a few times currently Minus 31% R.O.I.

Phew- Oh and I also offered 12 Billion for Qantas,but they weren't interested in my offer!

For more trading stuff and Wealth creation tools check out my website mymillionairebuddy.com/sharemarket

Week's wash up 04-05-07

Here's the progress report for this week..... some decent profits in Zinifex and OXR+ that trade I missed!


1. ARQ- After the decent gap up, this stock went sideways- with a RETURN ON INVESTMENT of 160% after broking I chose to exit.....the other option here would be to use the weighted moving average as a stop loss/exit- I like to 'take the money'. I entered this trade based on a penant formation, a strong bar out of the weighted moving average, a higher low, a RSI crossover and above average volume.

2. MRE- the one that got away! I was on a train when this presented itself- if I had done my normal 'market close scan' I probably would have been on board- a gap up of 60cents- to achieve 100% ROI-immediately! Reasons for entry:

Strong bar over weighted moving average, RSI-X, strong volume, support area/double bottoms.....and off it went.

Back to reality!

AXA- this one COULD have done something- max profit of sixteen cents-but alas not to last - Stop loss was moved to entry after the stock started moving. reason for trade:

Strong bar short through Weighted moving average, RSI-X.

4. ZFX- still shooting away-suspecting it has to end soon ,currently showing a 168% ROI- stop loss is at 100% ROI at 16.50.

5. OXR- a couple of nice moves after a week or so of sideways action- bring it on!

Paul J Penton is CEO of http://mymillionairebuddy.com - free wealth creation resources.

Current Trades-

Hi there,

this blog will keep me accountable to the new trading method I have adopted - the RSI-X. Based on a subtle interpretation of the standard indicator I will be looking here primarily at Australian stocks, but may include a few American ones from time to time.

I like to see 4 elements present before I am 'convinced' a trade is valid

1. A crossover on the 'x' period RSI indicator [the 'x' factor is revealed in my e-Book]

2. Significant movement through the 'x' period Weighted Moving Average

3. A higher Low or double bottom formation for long [buy]trades or a Lower High or
Double Top formation for short [selling] trades

4. Above average volume

I am trading CFD's on the Australian Securities Exchange at present and will look to trade the SPI 200 and S&P 500 at some point in the immediate future.

On all trades I currently use a maximum of 2% risk- this is achieved by calculating maximum risk on a trade and then dividing this into my 'risk capital'..... so for example an account of $20,000 lets me risk $400 [$20,000/2%]. let's assume I have 40 cents of risk on a $10 stock then I can buy...........

value $10.00

Stop/Loss $9.60
RISK $(0.40)
account $20000
2% of AC = $400.00
#0f shares = (1,000.00)

My average Return On Investment [R.O.I] for the last month of trading is at least 80%.... note this does not mean I have Increased the trading account by 80% in the last month!....... just the money at risk.

Current monthly return on the entire account is 10%.

Let's look at some of the current trades in play:

ZINIFEX- yahoo code zfx.ax

This chart is used courtesy of INCREDIBLECHARTS.COM
Initially I was alerted as the stock moved through the weighted moving average after making a Double Bottom formation. I was not 'convinced' by the volume and let it go. After the stock had made a new 'significant' HIGHER LOW and then broke the Weighted Moving Average I entered the trade - slightly early as it retraced immediately, but then the stock made a significant move- which SHOULD have been the entry. Still in this trade with stop loss placed at 100% R.O.I. around $16.50.

Exit strategy: I will run a trendline up the RSI and any break of this means an exit below the close of the 'signal day' . If the trade progresses to 200% R.O.I. I will move stop to 150% - alternately- as this is a medium term trade I will use the Weighted Moving Average as 'HARD STOP'.

ARQ- yahoo code arq.ax

This chart is used courtesy of INCREDIBLECHARTS.COM

Occasionally a trade will 'jump out' at you..... and this one certainly did- and then it JUMPED up a huge gap! So were my four criteria satisfied.....

RSI-Xover- YES

Weighted Moving average crossover & Strong bar- Yes

Lower High and support area-YES

Volume above average- Yes

To give this some additional 'Ooomph' there was a nice 'penant' formation.

After entering around 1.32 & 1/2 on a strong bar and wma cross with just over average volume the stock advanced marginally.... and was then sent the skywardon an anouncement that the company [oil exploration & production] had bought into a mob called Wandoo- who already had deposits in place.

My 100% R.O.I. target was hit at 1.40 and after an advance to 1.46 I placed my stop loss at the 100% R.O.I. point. It has held thus far with a brief glance on this day of writing, before closing Up 4 cents at 1.46.

I currently also hold IFL.ax, OXR.ax & am short on AXA.ax.

Paul J Penton is CEO of http://mymillionairebuddy.com : Free Wealth Creation Resources.