Sunday, May 27, 2007

Week ending May 25 - IS this it?

I've been watching the main Aussie index the XJO 200 slip and slide between two rallying points over the last month...as it bounced between 6390 and 6270....with a possible weak double top formation...... Finally we had a marginal break below this channel.

It's been gving me the 'screaming Ab-Dabs' as my father used to say. Now there's nothing firm Yet and it will probably rally into the zone again before a plummet[ IF there will be one!]. How's all this affect what I am doing?... well mostly I'd like a stock to be going in one direction or the other- even though this is a medium term trading method- it's still nice to have some sort of follow through- rather than the 'spasmodic' rises and falls we've had over the last month - Of course this could continue.

This week's efforts were mostly aborted on Thursday- as the index dropped 70 points and below the support line at 6270. First cab to be effected by this was Boral BLD.ax which had shown a 63% return on equity at one point. This trade was slightly different to the standard as it had come back through a double top and I was anticipating a position of support above this- not to be - I exited for just over break even.

DXL.ax [Dybonobel] This was a similar 'breakout' and it was marginally profitable- after the index plunged I wasn't interested in gambling on anything so took a 3 cent loss or 31% loss on investment...

Jubilee mines - JBM.ax I opened on Tuesday at 18.33 it plunged in the first day of the XJO move down and then recovered- surprising as Nickel was down 4% on the London Metals Exchange [Jubilee's main business is NICKEL!], so I sat with it . Checking the LME stats again the next morning nickel down a further 4%- I got out on the open as the XJO plunged once more - JBM down 60+ cents this time and stayed there = a minor 19% loss on investment.

I entered Tower [insurances] TWR.ax based on a breakout of the long term trend line... there was a very strong bar on good volume and I entered the trade around $2.18.... then DOWN IT GOES- classic trade! with the XJO route I got out on Thursday on the close only to watch it do a strong comeback next day- maybe it IS braking out- But with the flopsy undecided overall 'it might be time for a crash' feeling I've been getting I am happy to be out. Exit was $2.05 for 118% loss on investement [ that's only .25% of my total account however- is it worth crying over?]....

Finally as I write this Monday morning I have just exited my remaining position in Perilya mines PEM.ax. This was looking good - in a decent up trend, RSI-xover, Good volume on entry day- strong bar- then it got caught up in the uncertainty and plunged- entry was $4.48 and after a recovery to $4.40 I was out as the XJO dipped to 6220 for a loss of 87% on investment.

So, I'm pretty much on the sidelines while the market makes up its mind- I will be looking for 'shorting' opportunities- you CAN do this trading CFD's...

So, Is this IT? the start of a decent run down- Any Gannists' will be looking to the 20th oif June as a major marktet turning point- as will I.... is this it?



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